Fed hike expectations flip decisively after firmer CPI
TD changed its Fed call to a hike in September from a hold previously [C009]. CME FedWatch placed odds of a quarter-point increase next week at nearly 86%, up from 72% Thursday, after core CPI rose 0.3% in August [C016]. JPMorgan revised its forecast to hikes in September and December [C074], and Citi moved to a September hike with cuts by mid-2027 [C082]. WSJ's Timiraos reported the Fed is poised for a hike and "rarely stops at one" [C096]. Almost all Fed watchers who had not expected a September hike changed their call after the August CPI printed firmer than expected [C115].
- Mechanism
- Higher front-end rate expectations raise the discount rate and compress equity multiples, particularly for long-duration growth.
- Wider market or sector impact
- A hawkish Fed path pressures rate-sensitive sectors and supports the dollar, while steepening or flattening dynamics in the curve affect bank and bond-proxy positioning.
- Wider-impact evidence
- The shift is broad-based across sell-side desks and market pricing, changing the discount rate applied to all risk assets and the dollar/rates complex.
- Countercase
- Goldman's Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo called the decision a "jump ball," citing recent inflation pressures absent from the report [C016].
- Next test
- The Fed's quarterly economic and rate projections at Wednesday's meeting, which could indicate how many further increases officials anticipate [C097].
Entities US rates · US dollar · Nasdaq-100 · S&P 500.
Inspect evidence · 6 records
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C009 · Market reportingObserved 11 September 2026
TD CHANGES FED CALL TO HIKES FROM SEPTEMBER VS HOLD PREVIOUSLY
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C016 · Market reportingObserved 11 September 2026
*CME FedWatch placed the odds of a quarter-point Federal Reserve rate increase next week at nearly 86%, up from 72% Thursday, after core CPI rose 0.3% in August.* The Details: • BMO call: Ian Lyngen expects a hike next week and at least one additional quarter-point increase by year-end. • Wells Fargo view: Darrell Cronk said a Fed hold would now be the market surprise, citing signals from yields, swaps, and futures. • Franklin outlook: Jeff Schulze said fed-funds futures had priced 3.5 rate hikes before the CPI release. • Goldman view: Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo called the decision a “jump ball,” citing recent inflation pressures absent from the report.
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C074 · Market reportingObserved 11 September 2026
JPMORGAN REVISES FED FORECAST; NOW SEES RATE HIKES IN SEPTEMBER, DECEMBER
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C082 · Market reportingObserved 11 September 2026
Citi expects Fed rate hike in September and cuts by mid-2027
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C096 · Market reportingObserved 11 September 2026
WSJ'S TIMIRAOS: FED IS POISED FOR A RATE HIKE AND RARELY STOPS AT ONE
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C115 · Market reportingObserved 12 September 2026
Almost all of the Fed watchers that had not been expecting a September hike before today changed their call after the August CPI printed a bit firmer than expected