Research Digest — 2026-09-30

Verdict

The long-end sell-off is the dominant macro fact in the packet, and the evidence points to real rates and fiscal/term-premium pressure rather than an inflation-expectations shock — but the decomposition is not fully established in the cited evidence.

Analysis

The scale of the move is unambiguous: the 30-year UST rose for a sixth consecutive session to 5.67%, the highest since 2004, even as Brent fell 1.4% to $104 (P034), and DB reports the same 30-year yield reaching a post-2002 high of 5.67% while US and European HY spreads reached their widest since April and the Franco-German 10-year spread hit its widest since 2012 (P011). The causal mechanism matters for what follows. GS's Pasquariello notes that while US 10-year yields have pushed higher for seven consecutive months, inflation breakevens have barely budged, so inflation is not the primary driver of the recent backup (P019); CACIB's inflation-linked desk reaches the same conclusion from the European side — the last two weeks' sell-off in European rates was all about real yields, not about inflation expectations (P006). GS's Privorotsky frames the mechanism as a possible carry unwind as yen appreciation bites global balance-sheet capacity, extreme rate vol leaving the Street unwilling or unable to intermediate, and, at some point, high real rates simply being the clearing price for fiscally dominant economies trying to attract enough private capital to fund enormous sovereign borrowing (P014). The counterargument is that this is a term-premium/fiscal story that can persist without breaking risk assets: the S&P's earnings-yield spread over 10-year notes has been remarkably steady even as the forward P/E fell from 23x to 19x while 10-year yields rose from 4.14% to 5.27% (P022). The market consequence is that the hurdle rate for equities rises materially once risk-free real yields are high enough (P014), and the rate-sensitive tail has already paid: biotech -8%, small cap -9%, REITs -10%, homebuilders -15%, utilities -15%, non-profitable tech -19% from their respective local highs (P019). The uncertainty is whether the move is a repricing of term premium that stabilizes or a funding-capacity problem that compounds; the packet does not decompose the drivers quantitatively.

Tension

GS argues inflation is not the primary driver and breakevens have barely budged (P019), while the same desk warns that without the AI put, all other risks could become materially amplified (P002) — i.e., the equity market's resilience is itself the offset that keeps the rates move from becoming a broader risk event.

What changed

The 30-year UST reached its highest since 2004 and the 10-year OAT its highest since 2008, with the OAT-Bund spread at 119bp, its widest since 2012 (P034); the 30-year rose for a sixth consecutive session even as oil fell (P034, P011).

Desk views

Pasquariello frames the bond market as skating on thin ice, with 2-year notes backed up 145bp YTD and 10-year yields not seen since summer 2007, and stresses that inflation is not the primary driver of the backup.

Evidence IDs · P019

Privorotsky calls yesterday one of the more disturbing cross-asset days of the episode, with credit widening and rates selling off even as oil fell, and frames high real rates as the clearing price for fiscally dominant sovereigns.

Evidence IDs · P014

Natixis reports the 30-year UST at 5.67%, the highest since 2004, on a sixth consecutive session of increases, with the 10-year OAT at 4.81%, the highest since 2008, and the OAT-Bund spread at 119bp, the widest since 2012.

Evidence IDs · P034

CACIB's inflation-linked desk argues the European rates sell-off was all about real yields, not inflation expectations, with breakevens only marginally declining as oil and gas fell.

Evidence IDs · P006

Investor implication

If high real rates are the clearing price for sovereign funding rather than an inflation shock, the equity hurdle rate rises materially (P014) and the rate-sensitive tail — already down 8-19% from local highs (P019) — remains the pressure point; the offset is the AI-capex narrative that BofA calls the hedge against fiscal unsustainability (P002).

Trade expression

BofA prefers put spreads in TLT and rates-sensitive pockets like XLB and IWM to hedge a further rise in rates (P002).

Invalidation

A dovish central-bank shift or a Middle East resolution that lowers real rates would challenge the thesis; CACIB notes real rates may continue to sell off unless something happens, like a path towards resolution in the Middle East or more dovish central banks (P006).

Verdict

Equity index resilience is being carried by mega-cap tech and the AI narrative while the rate-sensitive tail pays the price; the AI put is the load-bearing offset, and its failure is the flagged tail risk.

Analysis

The divergence is the story. GS's Pasquariello notes that despite a surge in yields along the curve and across global bond markets, the most important equity indices have impressively held their ground — S&P sits just a weekly straddle away from ATH and NDX made higher highs as recently as last Tuesday — because the stocks that carry the most weight in the index haven't spit the bit, with US mega-cap tech powered ahead thanks to a steady stream of thesis-affirming news such as Meta's Muse and NVDA's eye-popping buyback (P019). BofA makes the mechanism explicit: macro risks are struggling to compete for attention as AI FOMO dominates and drives aggressive dip-buying — the AI put — and the bigger risk is a hiccup in the AI narrative dampening hope that the productivity growth it promises is the hedge against fiscal unsustainability; without the AI put, all other risks could become materially amplified (P002). GS's Privorotsky corroborates the micro side: semis and semi-equipment were firm with chatter around further TSMC U.S. expansion and the AI spending backdrop remains supportive, but the problem was underneath equities — credit widened and rates kept selling off even as oil fell (P014). The counterargument is that the de-rating has already done much of the work: JPM finds the broad Tech/AI ecosystem has stalled for three months, positioning is cleaner, de-rating in a majority of areas has been very significant, capex upswing will likely stay intact, earnings strength is continuing, and Mag-7 have de-rated to now be the cheapest in 10 years (P026). The market consequence is a barbell: index-level resilience masks a rate-sensitive tail that has already drawn down 8-19% (P019), and the AI narrative is doing the work that lower rates would otherwise do. The uncertainty is whether the AI put is a durable hedge or a crowded consensus that fails when it is most needed (P002).

Tension

BofA warns the AI put failing is the bigger risk for rates and that without it all other risks could become materially amplified (P002), while JPM argues the de-rating is advanced and earnings strength should support re-engagement with the group (P026) — the same complex is framed as both the market's main support and its main vulnerability.

What changed

The AI complex stalled for three months from June through last week, with de-rating in a majority of areas and Mag-7 now the cheapest in 10 years (P026), while semis were firm on TSMC expansion chatter even as credit widened (P014).

Desk views

Pasquariello argues the most important equity indices have impressively held their ground because US mega-cap tech has powered ahead on thesis-affirming news, even as rate-sensitive parts of the market pay a clear price.

Evidence IDs · P019

BofA frames the AI put as the mechanism driving aggressive dip-buying and argues its failure is the bigger risk for rates, since the productivity growth it promises is the hedge against fiscal unsustainability.

Evidence IDs · P002

Privorotsky notes semis and semi-equipment were firm on TSMC U.S. expansion chatter and the AI spending backdrop remains supportive, but the problem was underneath equities as credit widened and rates sold off.

Evidence IDs · P014

JPM finds the broad Tech/AI ecosystem has stalled for three months but positioning is cleaner, de-rating is advanced in a majority of areas, capex upswing will likely stay intact, and Mag-7 are now the cheapest in 10 years.

Evidence IDs · P026

Investor implication

If the AI put is the load-bearing offset against high real rates, then the equity index's resilience is conditional on continued AI thesis-affirming news; a narrative hiccup would remove the hedge and amplify all other risks (P002), while the rate-sensitive tail already down 8-19% (P019) would have no offset.

Trade expression

BofA likes NDX higher, rates higher hybrids for cheap but risk-limited tech upside, and prefers put spreads in TLT and rates-sensitive pockets like XLB and IWM to hedge a further rise in rates (P002).

Invalidation

A hiccup in the AI narrative that dampens hope in the productivity hedge would remove the offset and amplify all other risks (P002).

Verdict

France is the clearest country-level expression of the global bond rout, with fiscal and political risks converging on debt sustainability; the sell-off may have room to deepen because there is no widespread short base.

Analysis

CACIB frames OATs as the EGB market's most acute expression of the global bond rout's fiscal stress test, squeezed between rising debt servicing costs and compounding political risks, and argues fiscal and political risks are not independent layers but converge on a single question — how far can France's fiscal limits be stretched — making debt sustainability the only lens that matters for OAT valuations (P009). The scenario analysis is explicit: the 10-year OAT-Bund ranges from 90bp by Q3 2027 in the best case, a technical government anchoring fiscal consolidation, to 140bp should a hard-hung parliament and runaway deficit materialise (P009). The near-term flashpoint is budget passage: failure to reach a 5% deficit target would lock in a deteriorating 2027 starting point, severely curtailing any incoming government's fiscal room for manoeuvre (P009). The realized data corroborates the stress: Natixis reports the 10-year OAT at 4.81%, the highest since 2008, with the OAT-Bund spread widening 6bp to 119bp, the highest since 2012, and the French DMO projecting a state financing requirement of €339.7bn, up €28.0bn versus 2026 (P034). DB notes the Franco-German 10-year spread rose to its widest level since 2012 (P011), and JPM reports OATs continue to widen versus Bunds and BTPs with reports of record issuance — plans to sell €340bn of bonds in 2027 — not helpful (P029). The counterargument on positioning is important: CACIB notes a broad OAT underweight has been building since mid-June in an orderly fashion, but the absence of a widespread short base means there is still room for the sell-off to deepen before a clear floor emerges (P009). On valuation, CACIB argues that with 10-year ASW fair value around 100bp and limited risk/reward at current levels, credit curve steepeners remain the most carry-efficient way to express a cautious view on French credit, with tail risks of credit curve flattening in a severe stress scenario (P009). The market consequence is that French sovereign risk is now a live input into European bank exposure and EGB relative value, not a background concern.

Tension

CACIB argues current OAT levels are not particularly attractive with 10-year ASW fair value around 100bp and limited risk/reward (P009), while the absence of a widespread short base means the sell-off could deepen further before a floor emerges — valuation and positioning point in opposite directions.

What changed

The 10-year OAT reached 4.81%, its highest since 2008, and the OAT-Bund spread widened to 119bp, its highest since 2012, with the French DMO projecting a 2027 state financing requirement of €339.7bn, up €28.0bn versus 2026 (P034).

Desk views

CACIB frames OATs as the EGB market's most acute expression of the global bond rout's fiscal stress test, with debt sustainability the only lens that matters, and notes the absence of a widespread short base means room for the sell-off to deepen.

Evidence IDs · P009

Natixis reports the 10-year OAT at 4.81%, the highest since 2008, with the OAT-Bund spread at 119bp, the highest since 2012, and the French DMO projecting a €339.7bn 2027 financing requirement, up €28.0bn versus 2026.

Evidence IDs · P034

JPM reports France remains under pressure with OATs continuing to widen versus Bunds and BTPs, and notes reports of record issuance — plans to sell €340bn of bonds in 2027 — are not helpful.

Evidence IDs · P029

Investor implication

If budget passage fails to reach a 5% deficit target, the deteriorating 2027 starting point severely curtails any incoming government's fiscal room for manoeuvre (P009), and with no widespread short base the sell-off could deepen before a floor emerges (P009); this transmits into European bank exposure and EGB relative value.

Trade expression

CACIB argues credit curve steepeners remain the most carry-efficient way to express a cautious view on French credit, with tail risks of credit curve flattening in a severe stress scenario (P009).

Invalidation

A technical government anchoring fiscal consolidation would support the 90bp best-case scenario (P009).

Verdict

European credit spreads have widened only moderately and UniCredit expects the move to be temporary, supported by healthy corporate fundamentals — but the widening is real and the drivers are external.

Analysis

UniCredit reports that amid increased volatility in oil and government bond markets, European credit risk premiums have widened over the past few days, albeit only moderately: the investment grade senior and high yield non-financials indices have widened by 10bp and 30bp respectively this month, and current spread levels — at 85bp and 320bp — are close to year-end target levels (P037). The key driver of the widening was the renewed escalation of the US-Iran conflict, which is affecting shipping routes via the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, two critical global maritime chokepoints vital for the global economy and Europe in particular (P037). UniCredit's view is that several factors argue in favour of only moderate and temporary upside risk to credit risk premiums going forward: in an environment characterised by moderate but positive economic growth, corporates are sticking to subdued capex activity usually reduced to maintenance capex — with the exception of sectors related to rearmament, data centres or infrastructure — and M&A activity remains subdued, so balance sheets are characterised by stable to moderately increasing leverage, which contrasts with the rising leverage on government balance sheets (P037). The counterargument is that the widening is being driven by external shocks — oil and government bond volatility — that are not within corporates' control, and DB reports US and European HY spreads reached their widest since April (P011), which is a more cautious read on the same data. The market consequence is that European credit is being treated as a relative safe haven within the risk complex, but the base case depends on the oil and rates shocks remaining contained.

Tension

UniCredit expects spreads to normalize in 4Q26 on healthy corporate fundamentals (P037), while DB reports US and European HY spreads reached their widest since April (P011) — the same widening is framed as temporary by one desk and as a stress signal by another.

What changed

European IG non-financials senior spreads widened 10bp and high yield non-financials 30bp in September, with current levels at 85bp and 320bp respectively, close to year-end targets (P037).

Desk views

UniCredit expects the latest increase in credit spread volatility to be only temporary and rather moderate, as corporate credit remains supported by healthy fundamentals, with subdued capex and M&A keeping leverage stable.

Evidence IDs · P037

DB reports US and European HY spreads reached their widest since April, framing the widening as a sign of stress alongside the Franco-German spread at its widest since 2012.

Evidence IDs · P011

Investor implication

If the widening is driven by external oil and rates shocks rather than corporate fundamentals, then normalization depends on those shocks remaining contained; the contrast between stable corporate leverage and rising government leverage (P037) makes credit a relative safe haven within the risk complex.

Trade expression

Not established in cited evidence.

Invalidation

A further escalation of the US-Iran conflict or a sustained rates sell-off that pushes spreads beyond year-end targets would challenge the contained-and-temporary thesis (P037).

Verdict

USD strength is being driven by rising back-end yields, and APAC currencies are differentiating by external balance — surplus economies outperform deficit economies exposed to energy-import costs.

Analysis

ING reports the dollar jumped higher again despite soft US data, with rising back-end yields continuing to weigh on global risk sentiment and low-liquidity, higher-beta currencies bearing most of the brunt, while the yen remains the sole exception to the broader dollar strength trend (P025). Natixis reports the DXY edged up 0.11% to 101.50 with all G10 currencies depreciating against the dollar following Washington's rejection of an Iranian ceasefire proposal, and EUR/USD fell 0.32% to 1.1334 (P034). UBS frames the APAC differentiation: the leaders-stay-leaders regime remains intact under a challenging backdrop of high oil prices, elevated US yields, and broad USD strength, with surplus economies (TWD, KRW) and policy-anchored currencies (CNY, SGD, AUD) expected to continue to outperform deficit economies exposed to energy-import costs (INR, THB, PHP, IDR) (P036). UBS notes APAC currencies as a group are down around 1.1% against the USD year-to-date, consistent with the broader strength of the dollar, with the DXY index up approximately 3% over the same period, and beneath the surface performance has become increasingly differentiated (P036). The counterargument on the dollar's durability comes from MUFG: NY Fed President Williams pushed back strongly against building market expectations for a Fed hike as soon as next month, stating there is no need for urgency, and the US rate market pared back expectations for an October rate hike to around 12bps from around 18bps prior to the comments (P033). ING also notes October FOMC pricing fell 5bp to 12bp, its lowest level in around two weeks, underlining just how data-dependent markets see the October hike decision (P025). The market consequence is that the dollar's near-term direction is hostage to front-end rate pricing, while the APAC differentiation is a slower-moving structural story about external balances.

Tension

ING argues it may be premature to call the top in this dollar move with room for markets to reprice a higher probability of an October Fed hike (P025), while MUFG believes market pricing for almost four more hikes in the year ahead is excessive and Williams's pushback has already pared October expectations (P033).

What changed

The dollar index hit a high of 101.61, moving closer to the year-to-date high from June at 101.80, before Williams's comments dampened upward momentum (P033); October FOMC pricing fell 5bp to 12bp, its lowest in around two weeks (P025).

Desk views

ING argues the dollar jumped higher despite soft US data, with rising back-end yields weighing on global risk sentiment, and says it may be premature to call the top in this dollar move.

Evidence IDs · P025

UBS argues the leaders-stay-leaders Asia FX regime remains intact, with surplus economies and policy-anchored currencies expected to outperform deficit economies exposed to energy-import costs.

Evidence IDs · P036

MUFG reports Williams pushed back strongly against an October rate hike, with the rate market paring October expectations to around 12bps from around 18bps, and argues market pricing for almost four more hikes in the year ahead is excessive.

Evidence IDs · P033

Investor implication

If the dollar's direction is hostage to front-end rate pricing, then Williams's pushback and the data-dependent October decision (P025, P033) are the near-term swing factor; the APAC differentiation by external balance (P036) is a slower-moving structural story that persists regardless of the October outcome.

Trade expression

Not established in cited evidence.

Invalidation

A dovish Fed shift that lowers front-end yields would challenge the dollar strength thesis (P033, P025).

Verdict

Crude flows have largely normalized while refined product supplies remain constrained, and the recovery reflects the industry's ability to operate under sustained risk rather than improved safety.

Analysis

JPM reports the Middle East's oil export arteries are flowing again, with flows through the Saudi East-West pipeline restored and regional exports now just 11% below pre-war levels — a remarkable recovery for a region still at war — with the 10-day average for total oil exports holding at 20.5 mbd, or 89% of 2025 levels (P030). The recovery is uneven: crude flows have rebounded to 17.5 mbd, underscoring that the crude market has largely normalized even as refined product supplies remain constrained (P030). GS estimates Persian Gulf oil exports including estimated dark exports have recovered to 23.3mb/d over the last week, in line with their 2025 average, as exports doubled in September, with crude accounting for nearly 90% of the September recovery reaching 19mb/d (108% of 2025 average), while exports of main refined products remain at just 50% of 2025 average due to Middle East refinery outages 2.0mb/d above seasonal norms and the higher physical risks of shipping flammable products through Hormuz (P020). JPM notes the premium for immediacy is now so acute that five- to ten-year-old VLCCs are being valued above $150 million versus roughly $135 million for a newbuild, and higher crossings should not be mistaken for improved safety — rather, they reflect the industry's increasing ability to operate under sustained risk (P030). The counterargument on the demand side comes from GS's Privorotsky: Hormuz flows have recovered materially, but physical markets remain tight, differentials strong and shipping expensive, and another 40m barrels from the SPR helps at the margin, but when inventories are depleted even modest imbalances matter (P014). The market consequence is that the oil risk premium is being repriced lower on the crude side but remains elevated on the product side, and the LNG situation is a separate pressure valve: JPM reports QatarEnergy appears to have accelerated the use of dark mode for its LNG tankers, with seven exits in September versus zero in August but activity still well below normal and QatarEnergy running near 20% utilization (P028).

Tension

JPM reports crude flows have rebounded to 17.5 mbd and the crude market has largely normalized (P030), while GS's Privorotsky warns physical markets remain tight, differentials strong and shipping expensive, and when inventories are depleted even modest imbalances matter (P014).

What changed

Middle East oil exports recovered to just 11% below pre-war levels, with crude flows rebounding to 17.5 mbd while refined product exports remain at 58% of pre-war levels (P029, P030).

Desk views

JPM reports the Middle East's oil export arteries are flowing again with regional exports just 11% below pre-war levels, but the recovery is uneven with crude normalized and refined product supplies constrained, and higher crossings reflect the industry's ability to operate under sustained risk rather than improved safety.

Evidence IDs · P030

GS estimates Persian Gulf oil exports including dark exports have recovered to 23.3mb/d, in line with their 2025 average, with crude at 108% of 2025 average while refined products remain at just 50% due to refinery outages and higher physical risks of shipping flammable products through Hormuz.

Evidence IDs · P020

Privorotsky warns that while Hormuz flows have recovered materially, physical markets remain tight, differentials strong and shipping expensive, and when inventories are depleted even modest imbalances matter.

Evidence IDs · P014

JPM reports QatarEnergy appears to have accelerated the use of dark mode for its LNG tankers, with seven exits in September versus zero in August but activity still well below normal and QatarEnergy running near 20% utilization.

Evidence IDs · P028

Investor implication

If crude flows have largely normalized while refined product supplies remain constrained (P030, P020), then the oil risk premium is being repriced lower on the crude side but remains elevated on the product side, and the LNG situation — with QatarEnergy running near 20% utilization (P028) — is a separate European pressure valve.

Trade expression

Not established in cited evidence.

Invalidation

A resumption of hostilities would likely significantly damage sentiment (P004).

Verdict

DM central banks are in a hawkish but data-dependent posture, with the October Fed decision genuinely uncertain and coordination playing a meaningful secondary role in common policy shifts.

Analysis

The Fed's near-term path is genuinely uncertain: ING reports October FOMC pricing fell 5bp to 12bp, its lowest level in around two weeks, underlining just how data-dependent markets see the October hike decision, with core PCE expected to rise from 0.2% to 0.3% MoM and a 0.4% MoM core PCE print potentially lifting October hike pricing back close to 20bp (P025). MUFG reports Williams pushed back strongly against building expectations for a hike as soon as next month, stating there is no need for urgency, and the rate market pared October expectations to around 12bps from around 18bps, though Williams sees inflation of 3.5% this year and does not expect it to fall back to the Fed's goal until 2028 (P033). GS's Briggs and Dong provide the structural lens: DM policy rates are highly correlated primarily because central banks respond to common global shocks, but a secondary cause is that central banks sometimes coordinate focus and messaging, and their empirical test exploiting the pre-scheduled timing of the BIS's bimonthly General Economic Meetings finds correlated cross-country moves in two-year yields increase immediately after these meetings, with effects corresponding to 10-20% of these measures' standard deviations (P016). The RBA is the clearest hawkish example: GS reports the RBA raised the cash rate 25bp to 4.60% in a unanimous decision, with the MPB noting that some of the upside risks to inflation are materializing and that recent data suggest growth and inflation in Australia have been higher than expected (P012), and Governor Bullock framed the hike against upside risks from rising fuel prices, the AI boom, and capacity pressures, with GS viewing the press conference as incrementally less hawkish than the statement and expecting the RBA to hold for an extended period until a gradual easing cycle commences from 2H2027, while viewing further tightening as a material risk including as soon as November (P013). The UK is a different case: GS argues the soft labour market should limit the extent of BoE tightening but is unlikely to stop a November hike, with the vacancies-to-unemployment ratio well below pre-pandemic levels and the unemployment rate 1pp higher than in 2019, indicating some labour market slack but probably not a large margin (P021). The counterargument on coordination is that GS's results do not point to a hawkish or dovish bias after gatherings of global central bankers, but suggest an initial surprise from one central bank should have more read-through to other central banks after such events (P016). The market consequence is that the October Fed decision is a genuine coin-flip that will be resolved by data, and the coordination channel means a surprise from one central bank has more read-through than usual.

Tension

MUFG argues market pricing for almost four more hikes in the year ahead is excessive and Williams's pushback has already pared October expectations (P033), while ING warns it may be premature to call the top in the dollar move with room for markets to reprice a higher probability of an October Fed hike (P025).

What changed

October FOMC pricing fell 5bp to 12bp, its lowest level in around two weeks (P025); the RBA raised the cash rate 25bp to 4.60% in a unanimous decision (P012).

Desk views

ING reports October FOMC pricing fell 5bp to 12bp, its lowest in around two weeks, underlining how data-dependent markets see the October hike decision, and warns it may be premature to call the top in the dollar move.

Evidence IDs · P025

MUFG reports Williams pushed back strongly against an October hike, with the rate market paring expectations to around 12bps from around 18bps, and argues market pricing for almost four more hikes in the year ahead is excessive.

Evidence IDs · P033

GS finds DM policy rates are highly correlated primarily because central banks respond to common global shocks, with coordination playing a meaningful secondary role, and correlated cross-country moves in two-year yields increase immediately after BIS meetings.

Evidence IDs · P016

GS reports the RBA raised the cash rate 25bp to 4.60% in a unanimous decision, with the MPB noting some of the upside risks to inflation are materializing and that recent data suggest growth and inflation in Australia have been higher than expected.

Evidence IDs · P012

GS reports Governor Bullock framed the hike against upside risks from rising fuel prices, the AI boom, and capacity pressures, and GS views the press conference as incrementally less hawkish than the statement, expecting the RBA to hold for an extended period until a gradual easing cycle commences from 2H2027.

Evidence IDs · P013

GS argues the soft labour market should limit the extent of BoE tightening but is unlikely to stop a November hike, with the vacancies-to-unemployment ratio well below pre-pandemic levels and the unemployment rate 1pp higher than in 2019.

Evidence IDs · P021

Investor implication

If the October Fed decision is genuinely data-dependent (P025) and coordination means a surprise from one central bank has more read-through than usual (P016), then the near-term path for rates and the dollar is hostage to today's PCE and ADP releases and the September CPI in a couple of weeks (P025).

Trade expression

Not established in cited evidence.

Invalidation

A soft core PCE print would lower October hike pricing and challenge the hawkish posture (P025).